Hourly matching is moving from premium to baseline

The proposed revisions to the GHG Protocol's Scope 2 guidance are shifting the goalposts. Renewable energy claims will need to align with actual consumption patterns, hour by hour, not just match annual volumes on paper. When we hosted this event last year, the GHG Protocol revision was still a trajectory to watch: corporates were following the process closely, but the 2027 final version felt far away. A year on, the conversation has moved from preparation to action. A recent survey highlights that already 46 suppliers globally offer hourly matched products. Hourly matching is no longer a voluntary premium but an emerging baseline accountability standard. Regulatory momentum is building fast: the European Commission's energy labelling consultation on hourly matching requirements just closed, and regulation for data centres is currently underway.

Don’t wait for perfect data: start reporting, start tracking, start building transparency

A recurring message from the discussion on the GHG Scope 2 revision was the importance of getting moving rather than waiting for perfect data. For example, starting with monthly consumption figures and progressively pushing suppliers for half-hourly grid data. Also, the panel highlighted the importance of delivering transparency first: it's near-zero cost, and it builds the internal foundations needed to tackle harder matching decisions later. Progress over perfection.

Strong hourly scores require a diversified portfolio

Achieving strong hourly matching scores requires more than a single renewable contract. A well-diversified portfolio combines wind and solar, baseload renewable contracts where available, and increasingly dispatchable sources like geothermal and biomethane to cover the gaps. Storage plays a growing role here too, and an hourly certificate market could price this in. When certificate markets move to hourly granularity, low-renewable hours will command a higher certificate price than high-renewable hours, creating a tangible revenue opportunity for storage developers willing to fill those gaps.

Contract structures are getting more sophisticated

The discussion on Next-Generation portfolio management covered how contract structures are evolving in response to a more volatile grid. Standalone flexibility arrangements, two separate agreements on the same site, are increasingly preferred over hybrid co-located PPAs. The financial product toolkit is expanding too: physical and virtual tolls, floors, day-ahead auctions, and swaps are all emerging as new instruments. Above 5MW, the UK’s CPPA market has largely dried up in favour of CfDs, now accounting for 99% of cases.

The battery revenue story has fundamentally changed

Frequency response markets, once the primary revenue stream for battery storage, have saturated across GB, Texas, Australia, and California. Revenues have fallen from around £500k/MW/year in 2022 to £30-40k/MW/year today. At last year's event, co-located solar and storage were not yet commanding a premium. A year on, wholesale trading has become the primary income stream, with batteries charging overnight and during midday solar peaks, and discharging during peak load periods. Battery-plus-solar PPAs could open new financing routes from large demand users, but a structural gap remains: batteries are still excluded from the REGO system, limiting their role in hourly matching structures.

Policy needs to catch up with market reality

The UK’s newly announced Wholesale Contract for Differences mechanism was a key topic on the day, with panellists raising concerns about locking in 20-year structures under a market design widely seen as not fit for purpose. Broader gaps remain: better counterparty risk mitigation for long-term contracts, locational pricing signals that reflect flexibility value, and clearer risk allocation. Most corporates simply don't have the in-house trading capability to manage complex products, and contract structures need to reflect that.

License Exempt Supply is growing fast in the UK

Our last panel was focused on licence-exempt supply, a mechanism that allows generators to supply electricity directly to end consumers and yields up to £65/MWh of savings, as electricity levies such as CfD, RO, FiT or CM are not charged on those volumes. This mechanism has been around for more than 25 years, but Elexon’s changes last year, which made it more accessible, combined with growing market awareness, have led to a significant increase in uptake. Panellists mentioned this is now a key driver for PPA offtakers to win or lose tenders, and is also becoming a key driver to win consumer supply contracts. The discussion then moved to the sustainability of the scheme, as the costs are borne by all electricity consumers and will increase with usage. Panellists mentioned possibilities to narrow it to specific types of customers, for example, community energy, or to decrease the saving amount it generates.

We'd like to extend a warm thank you to all panellists and attendees, and to the team at CMS for co-hosting. If you'd like to continue any of these conversations, get in touch with the Granular Energy team.